Is 2011 the Year of the Blockbuster Tech I.P.O.?

For technology start-ups, the initial public offering has long lost the sheen of the dot-com era, when it seemed like anyone with an idea could go public. At the peak of the bubble, the Silicon Valley factory was in overdrive, pumping out hundreds of I.P.O.’s. a year.

In the wake of the financial crisis, there were just 45 offerings of tech companies in 2010, according to investment firm Renaissance Capital. The year before, only 16 debuted.

Now, Silicon Valley could see a modest return to the prerecession days — and even a hot brand-name initial offering from the likes of Groupon, Facebook or Zynga analysts say.

“If the equity markets remain stable, I expect a solid I.P.O. market,” said Peter Falvey, co-head of technology investment banking for Morgan Keegan. “We could see 20 percent more deals by value and by number.” Mr. Falvey and others also see increasing odds for a “Death Star explosion” — a blockbuster, multibillion dollar offering from a major Internet company. That theory gained credence on Thursday, when DealBook reported that that social-buying site Groupon is preparing for to I.P.O. at the end of 2011.

Silicon Valley is waking from a deep slumber.
The credit crisis paralyzed the technology I.P.O. market, as investors shunned unproven ventures. Only 20 companies went public from 2008 to the end of 2009, according to data from Renaissance Capital.

Meanwhile, initial offerings have become less attractive to young entrepreneurs who do not want to be burdened with the costly bureaucratic challenges of going public, including increased regulatory scrutiny, constant filings and high investment banking fees.

Instead, more founders are delaying initial offerings in favor of additional venture capital. Facebook raised more than half a billion dollars from the Russian firm Digital Sky Technologies. As DealBook noted, Groupon is negotiating with Fidelity, T. Rowe Price and Morgan Stanley for another round of financing that could be as large as $950 million.

Still, several analysts say I.P.O.’s may be regaining favor again, thanks to the improving stock market and a better economic environment.

“We may be nearing an inflection point,” said Paul Bard, a vice president at Renaissance Capital. “Companies are feeling good about their businesses, the buy side is more interested in growth and new money is coming into the market. When you have those three things happening in concert, that creates the potential for a very vibrant market for tech I.P.O.’s.”

The market may also be supported by the steady flow of Chinese companies, looking to go public on American exchanges. Eleven technology companies based in China had initial public offerings in the United States this year, including DangDang, an online retailer that experienced higher-than-expected demand in its debut, raising $272 million.

After a sluggish start, I.P.O. performance and pricing has picked up in the second half of this year. The shares of technology companies that have recently gone public are up 50.3 percent from their initial offer price, according to Morgan Keegan.

Although there are a few well-known names in this group, including the electric-car marker Tesla, the vast majority are little known, small-cap stocks. And some have done very well.

Shares of the software maker RealPage, which began trading in August, have roughly doubled. RealD, the 3-D technology company that went public in July, is up 60 percent.

The average first-day increase in share price was 18 percent, said Mr. Bard, adding that the recent rally would encourage small and midsize tech start-ups to take the plunge next year. He says he expects 2011 I.P.O. activity for technology stocks to match the levels of the years preceding the recession. In those years, the market averaged 53 public offerings a year with a value of $9.6 billion, according to Renaissance Capital.

There are 22 companies in the tech I.P.O. pipeline, including the Web chat service Skype, which many predict will be a billion-dollar offering.

The latest parlor game, however, is placing bets on whether Internet companies like Groupon or Facebook, which already have multibillion-dollar valuations, will join the fray. There has been significant demand for these Web darlings in the secondary markets, private exchanges that match buyers and sellers, including former employees looking to sell their stock. Facebook, at the center of the frenzy, is trading at an implied valuation of $42.4 billion, according to SharesPost. Although the company’s founder, Mark Zuckerberg, has said that he is in no rush to go public, the company may face increased pressure in the near term. As more investors pile into Facebook shares, often through special investment pools, the company could soon surpass 500 shareholders. That milestone would subject the company to a Securities and Exchange Commission rule that would require Facebook to register with the S.E.C. and submit financial results.

As DealBookreported, the S.E.C. has started to ask for information about secondary-market trading in the shares of Facebook, Twitter, Zynga and LinkedIn. If Groupon or Facebook, or one of their peers, do go public in 2011, Mr. Falvey said it would be a game changer for the industry.

“There’s a chance that you get that Death Star I.P.O. in the tech market that draws huge attention to I.P.O.’s,,” he said, “the kind of attention we haven’t seen since the tech bubble burst in 2000.”