The New York Stock Exchange composite index, which tracks all common shares on the Big Board, rose 0.5% to 8,379.85 on Tuesday. That left it up 98.3% from its nadir of 4,226.31 on March 9, 2009.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 0.4% to 1,324.57 on Tuesday. It’s now up 95.8% from its bear-market low of 676.53. Bullstat The Dow Jones industrial average is bringing up the rear. At 12,233.15 on Tuesday it was up 86.8% from its 2009 low of 6,547. The Dow will have to reach 13,094 to double from its low.
By contrast, indexes of small- and mid-size stocks crossed the 100%-gain threshold in spring of last year, rebounding much faster than large-stock-dominated indexes -- as is typical in the first stage of a bull market.
The Russell 2,000 small-stock index, which bottomed at 343.26 in 2009, doubled that by last March and at Tuesday’s close was up 137% from its bear-market low.
Technology shares also have led the market rebound. The Nasdaq composite index, at 2,797.05 now, is up 120.5% from its 2009 low. It topped the 100%-gain level in November.
If the S&P 500’s rally can make it past the 100% mark, history is on the side of investors expecting more to come: Of the six bull markets since 1942 that saw the S&P rise at least 100%, the average gain from the bear market low to the next market peak was 244%, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
But the numbers from the last bull market, which ran from October 2002 to October 2007, don’t provide much comfort. The S&P 500 peaked just past the 100%-gain threshold, rising 101.5% from its 2002 low to its all-time high of 1,565.15 on Oct. 9, 2007, before beginning a decline that ended with the 2008-09 crash.
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